The College Enrollment Decline: Are Universities Losing Their Luster?

Is College Enrollment Decreasing in the U.S.?

College enrollment in the U.S. was at an all-time high in 2011, when more than 20 million students were enrolled in two- and four-year colleges and universities. Since then, enrollment has declined by well over a million students, even as the overall population has continued to grow.

While the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the downturn—particularly between 2020 and 2022—it did not create the trend. Undergraduate enrollment had already been slipping for years, pointing to deeper concerns around cost, perceived value, and changing workforce dynamics.

The “Enrollment Cliff”

On top of shifting workforce trends, the decline in college enrollment may also be attributed to the sharp drop in the number of traditional-age college students in the United States. This “enrollment cliff” is primarily caused by long-term declines in birth rates that began after the 2008 Great Recession.

Where the Enrollment Decline Is Hitting Hardest

Enrollment declines impact different school types and age groups differently, revealing where the shift away from college is most pronounced. For example:

• Community colleges have experienced the steepest losses, particularly among adult learners and traditional college-age students.
• Four-year institutions have also seen enrollment drop, though generally at a slower pace.
• Students over age 24—once a growing segment returning to school to advance or pivot their careers—are enrolling at significantly lower rates.
• Traditional students, ages 18 to 24, continue to enroll at lower levels than a decade ago, even as high school graduation rates remain relatively stable.

Declining Enrollment: What’s Driving the Shift?

Several factors are contributing to declining enrollment, including:

Rising Tuition & Student Debt

Rising tuition and student debt continue to outpace inflation and wage growth, leaving many graduates with financial obligations that can take decades to repay. As these costs climb, scrutiny around return on investment has intensified. Analyses of earnings show that a significant share of bachelor’s degree programs do not generate a positive financial return once tuition costs and lost wages are considered.

Degree Saturation & Credential Inflation

At the same time, degree saturation and credential inflation have reshaped the labor market. An oversupply of college graduates has contributed to wage pressure and a growing number of degree holders working in jobs that do not require a degree. In response, many employers are reevaluating degree requirements and placing greater emphasis on skills, experience, and training.

These shifts are forcing schools to rethink pricing, program offerings, and how they demonstrate value to prospective students.

When Degrees Don’t Match Demand

Many open technical, construction, and service-related roles do not require a degree and often remain unfilled, while college graduates compete for a shrinking pool of degree-specific positions. This imbalance has driven wages up in non-degree fields and made students more cautious about choosing a traditional college path.

Is This the End of College as a Default?

The decline in college enrollment doesn’t mean higher education is disappearing. It just means its role is being reevaluated. As financial pressure grows, colleges are being forced to justify cost, outcomes, and relevance. At the same time, skills-based education is gaining ground as students and families seek clearer career paths, lower risk, and a stronger return on investment.

Ready to Explore Your Options?

If you’re questioning whether a traditional four-year degree is the right path, Explore The Trades offers free resources to help you make an informed decision. From career guidance to classroom tools, we help students, parents, and educators understand real-world career opportunities beyond the traditional college track.